Igipimo cy’inyungu gishobora kongera kuzamuka ku isi hose.

Nta kindi kintu cyakwibutsa ko ibiruhuko by’impeshyi byarangiye kurusha amakuru y’uko ibiciro by’ingufu bishobora gukomeza kuzamuka, ndetse n’uko ikiguzi cyo kubona inguzanyo gishobora kongera gutumbagira.

Ibiciro bya peteroli bimaze amezi bizamuka ku buryo bukomeye, bituma abashoferi barushaho kwishyura kuri sitasiyo za lisansi ndetse n’ingengo y’imari y’ingo igakomeza guhura n’igitutu. Hari kandi impungenge ko ingaruka z’ubukungu z’intambara hagati ya Amerika na Iran zishobora gutuma ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa na serivisi bikomeza kuzamuka.

Banki Nkuru y’u Burayi yazamuye igipimo cy’inyungu muri iki cyumweru ikigeza kuri 2.5%, ivuga ko amakimbirane yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati ashobora gukomeza kugira ingaruka ku bukungu. Yaburiye kandi ko izamuka ry’ibiciro rishobora kumara igihe riri hejuru cyane y’intego yayo ya 2%.

Izindi banki nkuru na zo ziri gukurikiranira hafi uko ibintu bihagaze. Muri Amerika no mu Bwongereza, biteganyijwe ko hafatwa imyanzuro ku gipimo cy’inyungu mu cyumweru gitaha.

Banki Nkuru ya Amerika ni yo izabanza gutangaza icyemezo ku wa Gatatu. Imwe mu nama zayo eshanu ziheruka, Federal Reserve ntiyahinduye igipimo cy’inyungu, kikaba kiri hagati ya 3.5% na 3.75%. Ubwo yaherukaga kugihindura, mu Kuboza, yari yagabanyije inyungu.

Icyakora, izamuka ry’ibiciro rikomeje kuba hejuru y’intego, ubu rigeze kuri 3.4%. Isoko ry’umurimo na ryo riracyafite imbaraga. Perezida Donald Trump kandi yavuze ko adatekereza ko ibiciro bya peteroli bizamanuka mbere y’uko intambara ya Iran irangira, ibyo akaba yiteze ko bizaba nyuma y’amatora yo mu Ugushyingo.

Ibi byatumye bamwe mu bashoramari ku isoko ry’imari rya Wall Street batangira gutekereza ko Federal Reserve ishobora kuzamura inyungu muri uku kwezi.

Umuyobozi mushya wa Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, ntiyigeze atangaza ku mugaragaro icyo atekereza ku cyerekezo cy’inyungu. Ariko kuba akomeje gushimangira ko banki nkuru ikwiye gushyira imbere kugabanya izamuka ry’ibiciro, byatumye abatari bake barushaho kwitega ko inyungu zazamurwa.

Abahanga mu bukungu ba Deutsche Bank baherutse kuvuga ko kuzamura inyungu ari cyo cyemezo gishoboka cyane. Bashingiye ku magambo yavuzwe na Warsh ndetse n’abandi bayobozi ba Federal Reserve.

Icyakora, ntabwo abasesenguzi bose babibona kimwe. Grace Zwemmer, umuhanga mu bukungu bwa Amerika muri Oxford Economics, we ateganya ko igipimo cy’inyungu kizaguma uko kiri. Nubwo bimeze bityo, hari ubwumvikane bwagutse ko kugabanya inyungu muri iki gihe bitagiteganyijwe.

Trump ariko yongeye gusaba ko inyungu zagabanywa. Mu butumwa yashyize ku mbuga nkoranyambaga mu cyumweru gishize, yasabye abayobozi ba Federal Reserve “kugira ubwenge” no gukorera igihugu.

Intambara hagati ya Amerika na Iran ndetse n’izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli na gaz ku isi bikomeje kongera impungenge z’uko inflation ishobora kwiyongera. Ubwikorezi bw’ibicuruzwa unyuze mu Nyanja ya Hormuz, imwe mu nzira zikomeye ku isi zitwarwamo peteroli na gaz, bwagizweho ingaruka n’intambara.

Kuri ubu, barril imwe ya peteroli ya Brent igura hafi amadolari 105, ni ukuvuga hafi £78. Ibi biri hafi y’ibiciro byariho ubwo amakimbirane yatangiraga.

Usibye gutuma ibiciro by’ingufu bikoreshwa n’ingo n’ibigo bizamuka, peteroli na gaz bihenze bishobora no kongera ikiguzi cyo gutwara ibicuruzwa. Ibyo biciro bishobora guhita byimurirwa ku baguzi, bigatuma ibiribwa n’ibindi bicuruzwa by’ibanze birushaho guhenda.

Banki nkuru zikoresha kuzamura inyungu nk’imwe mu nzira zo kurwanya izamuka ry’ibiciro.

Iyo inyungu zazamutse, ikiguzi cyo kubona inguzanyo, zirimo izo kugura amazu n’izikoresha amakarita y’inguzanyo, na zo kiriyongera. Ibi bigamije gutuma abantu bagabanya amafaranga bakoresha, bityo bigafasha kugabanya inflation. Inyungu nyinshi kandi zishobora gutuma abantu bahitamo kuzigama aho gukoresha amafaranga.

Ariko kuzamura inyungu bishobora kugira n’ingaruka ku bukungu. Bishobora gutuma ibigo bisubika ishoramari ndetse bikagabanya umubare w’abakozi bishaka guha akazi.

Igihe Banki Nkuru y’u Bwongereza izaterana mu cyumweru gitaha, biteganyijwe ko izasuzuma haba izamuka ry’ibiciro ririho ubu ndetse n’uko ubukungu muri rusange buhagaze.

Miliyoni z’ingo zo mu Bwongereza ziteganyijwe kubona fagitire z’ingufu ziyongera zikagera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu myaka itatu ishize, mu gihe igihugu cyitegura igihe cy’imbeho.

Ibiciro bya gaz na byo byazamutse birenga pence 200 kuri therm, ku nshuro ya mbere kuva mu mpera za 2022.

Inflation mu Bwongereza iri kuri 2.9% kandi biteganyijwe ko izakomeza kuzamuka mu mezi ari imbere.

Nubwo bimeze bityo, abasesenguzi benshi bemeza ko Banki Nkuru y’u Bwongereza izasiga igipimo cy’inyungu kuri 3.75%.

Oxford Economics ivuga ko nta bimenyetso bigaragara by’icyo bita “second-round effects” — aho ihungabana ry’ibiciro ritangira kugira izindi ngaruka ku bukungu, nk’abakozi basaba kongererwa imishahara cyangwa ibigo bizamura ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa na serivisi.

Umuhanga mu bukungu Alexander Harvey yavuze ko ibi biha Banki Nkuru y’u Bwongereza “umwanya wo guhumeka” mbere yo gufata izindi ngamba.

Yael Selfin, umuyobozi ushinzwe ubukungu muri KPMG, yavuze ko ugereranyije na Amerika, ubukungu bwo mu Bwongereza n’ahandi hanze yayo bwacitse intege cyane ugereranyije n’uko bwari bumeze mu 2022, ubwo isi yahuraga n’ihungabana rikomeye ry’ibiciro.

Inflation mu Bwongereza yageze ku rwego rwo hejuru rwa 11.1% mu Ukwakira 2022.

Selfin yavuze ko igipimo cy’inyungu na cyo gisanzwe kiri hejuru ugereranyije n’uko cyari kimeze mu myaka ine ishize. Yongeyeho ko abaguzi, nyuma yo guhura n’izamuka rikomeye ry’ibiciro, bahinduye uburyo bakoresha amafaranga.

Harvey yavuze ko mu myaka ine ishize, “ibigo byashakaga abakozi ku bwinshi, imyanya y’akazi yari myinshi cyane kandi abantu benshi kurusha ibisanzwe bahinduraga imirimo”, mu gihe ubukungu bwari butangiye kwisuganya nyuma y’icyorezo cya Covid-19.

Yagize ati: “Ibyo byatumaga abakozi bagira imbaraga zo gusaba imishahara yiyongereye cyane mu rwego rwo guhangana n’izamuka rikomeye ry’ibiciro.”

Ati: “Ubu ibintu biratandukanye cyane ku isoko ry’umurimo.”

Muri iki gihe, gutanga akazi byagabanutse cyane ugereranyije n’ibisanzwe, kandi ibigo ntibigifite igitutu gikomeye cyo gushaka abakozi bashya.

Ibi bituma abakozi bagira imbaraga nke zo gusaba kongererwa imishahara.